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The Fourth Transformation, by Robert Scoble, Shel Israel
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Ten years from today, the center of our digital lives will no longer be the smart phone, but device that looks like ordinary eyeglasses: except those glasses will have settings for Virtual and Augmented Reality. What you really see and what is computer generated will be mixed so tightly together, that we won’t really be able to tell what is real and what is illusion.
Instead of touching and sliding on a mobile phone, we will make things happen by moving our eyes or by brainwaves. When we talk with someone or play an online game, we will see that person in the same room with us. We will be able to touch and feel her or him through haptic technology.
We won’t need to search online with words, because there will be a new Visual Web 100 times larger than the current Internet, and we will find things by images, buy things by brands, or just by looking at a logo on the jacket of a passerby. Language will be irrelevant, and a merchant in a developing world will have access to global markets.
Medical devices will cure schizophrenia, allow quadriplegics to walk. People will be able to touch and feel objects and other people who are not actually there for conversations, games and perhaps intimate experiences.
From Kindergarten to on-the-job, learning will become experiential. Children will visit great battlefields and tour historic places in VR rather than read about them in text books. Med students and surgeons will learn and practice on virtual humans rather than cadavers; oil rig workers will understand how to handle emergencies, before the ever leave the home office.
The Fourth Transformation is based on two years of research and about 400 interviews with technologists and business decision makers. It explains the technology and product landscape on a level designed to be interesting and useful to business thinkers and general audiences. Mostly it talks about how VR and AR are already being used, or will be used in the next one-to-three years. It explains how this massive and fundamental transformation will be driven, nit just by Millennials, but by the generation following them, which the authors have named the Minecraft Generation.
Robert Scoble and Shel Israel have written this book in the hope that it will serve as a business thinker’s guidebook to the near-term future. They hope readers will walk away understanding the massive changes rapidly arising, so that they will navigate a successful course through the changes they will be facing sooner than they—or their competitors-- may realize just yet.
- Sales Rank: #26861 in Books
- Published on: 2016-12-07
- Released on: 2016-12-07
- Original language: English
- Dimensions: 9.00" h x .52" w x 6.00" l,
- Binding: Paperback
- 208 pages
Most helpful customer reviews
33 of 34 people found the following review helpful.
You don't need a headset to see our Mixed-Reality future. Just get this book
By M. Markman
If you’re only casually aware of what’s out there, your current image of a VR enthusiast may be of a twenty-something gamer with an oversized headset strapped to their face, tethered to a powerful computer, stumbling and flailing blindly around a room, bumping into walls and furniture as they fight dragons, zombies, and aliens that only they can see.
If that’s what you imagine, prepare for a revelation. Scoble and Israel’s new book, “The Fourth Transformation: How Augmented Reality & Artificial Intelligence Will Change Everything.” It will jangle your brain. It will whet your appetite for a feast of invention. And, in the process, it may also very well alarm you. If you are inclined to build, create, or invest in new kinds of experiences, it will open a whole universe of possibilities for you. If you are willing and able to work in that universe, you may even find yourself following Alan Kay’s quip about the best way to predict the future: you may find yourself inventing it.
This is their third book together and by far their best. Broadest in scope, deepest in specific research, and farthest seeing.
The future that Scoble and Israel are predicting (or, more properly, reporting) represents the most radical advance of digital technology since the development of the computer. It’s a future, they argue, that will transform not just our devices, but us and our world. Their sub-title promises it will change everything. Everything. I don’t think that’s hyperbole. The stories they tell are both breathtaking and mind-blowing. Scoble and Israel give us an insider’s glimpse into us what’s cooking in labs at startups (some them very well-funded and close to shipping), universities, and the top tier of established global corporations—in technology and entertainment. It’s an exhaustive, expansive survey, told with breathless enthusiasm (and ample warnings), covering a range of advances that are slated to arrive over the next decade. The core is a cluster of technologies already coming to market in their early primitive and/or over-priced versions: VR, AR, and MR. (respectively, Virtual, Augmented, and Mixed Reality). If you’re not yet fluent in the terminology, The Fourth Transformation includes an extensive and helpful glossary.
Scoble and Israel take a high-level view. Their book focuses not so much on technical details, as on the likely positive (and some worrying negative) impacts these new technologies will have on our lives. Such diverse fields as health, retail, transportation, manufacturing, education, gaming, and entertainment will explode into new possibilities. The authors acknowledge that the infrastructure behind these technologies will create the means for tracking of our movements, interests, and activities. That will surely tempt surveillance by governments, law enforcement, and corporate marketers.
Some of the possibilities described in this book strike me as downright obnoxious. If pop-up ads and auto-play videos annoy you when browsing the Web, imagine a world where pop-up holograms and auto-play sales pitches greet you in every store, restaurant, and hotel. If I happen to stare too long at a box on the supermarket shelf or a jacket on a department store mannikin, I’m not sure I’m ready to have it launch into a “buy me” pitch. The promise is that the data in my digital dossier will combine with advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence to filter out everything except the pitches and messages I will be glad to get, I’m dubious. I’m not convinced the world needs more advertising.
Despite their unabashed enthusiasm for the new technology, Scoble and Israel’s longest chapter is entitled, “What Could Possibly Go Wrong.” Ironically, it happens to be Chapter 11.
The notes are thorough and extensive and all of them link to source materials on the Web.
6 of 6 people found the following review helpful.
The Fourth Transformation brings new meaning to 'seeing is believing'!
By Sam Perry
Oh No! Oh Dear! Disclosure #1 - this book the Fourth Transformation by Robert Scoble and Shell Israel, is going to cost me, dearly! I can explain. Really, it will be orders of magnitude greater than the cost of this timely volume - $17.70 on Amazon, despite having been accorded an advance copy (more on this soon).
The point is, this duo makes a convincing case that we are on the verge of a new media, a new capacity for story-telling, which as a nation and a world we have just learned once again is perhaps the most primal and powerful mover of human actions ever. Greater than facts, or evidence-based science, though in the discussion of health, teaching and augmented capacities, this transformation can well deeply augment and improve our abilities to factor detailed knowledge and information for better results. Or not. As with past collaborations, digital pioneer and gadfly Scoble, and his literate scribe Mr. Israel, delve into the potential abuses of these technologies and the media they enable, as well as the upside.
Disclosure #2, is I’m an admitted gadget guy. The world of Virtual Reality - products you will easily see promoted elsewhere - is not cheap. To explore, one must at least access a salon or demonstration facility. To own any of the devices will set you back several times more than the cost of that wall-size LCD TV you may have been coveting. Unlike the three earlier transformations to which the book refers - mainframes, text-based operating systems and then graphical interfaces on computers and smartphones - this next medium is immersive and may soon be ubiquitous. While VR currently requires a masking headset to interface with the world, the promise of Augmented Reality (AR) is adding images and information to in line of sight during our everyday lives. Israel and Scoble even seek to coin a new phrase to describe the ultimate outcome - Mixed Reality when we can experience a blend of digital and physical reality in daily life.
Disclosure #3 - I am a big fan of Scoble and Israel, and I fully appreciate their brisk and informed, contemporaneous journey through the state of play at the moment - in a year when Pokeman lept back into our lives via Pokeman Go in a small number of days, demonstrating how even a simple geo-located game can garner near instant fascination around the globe. As such, they are describing the advent of this nascent industry today. So I do caution not to expect this to be a definitive “history” of AR and VR, as one least impressed reviewer appears to have wanted. Instead it is a lively romp through the very early days that can be a portal for those wanting to understand where this new transformation may lead. (And Disclosure #4, yes I did receive an advance digital copy, but as usual With this two-some I wanted a hard copy so I bought it, here, of course!) It is a new beginning, and, as the authors quote Arthur C. Clarke in the frontispiece, “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Enjoy the book. Yet beware of your budget if you, like me, get hooked. Remember, I warned you here first.
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
A must read for technologists of all stripes!
By Paul Duplantis
In 1960s, communication theorist Marshall Mcluhan wrote how communication technologies would become "extensions of man", a prediction becoming increasingly apparent in the early stages of what Robert Scoble and Shel Israel call the Fourth Transformation, outlined in their latest collaboration, The Fourth Transformation: How Augmented Reality & Artificial Intelligence Will Change Everything.
Just as Bill Gates, in the mid 90’s, laid out a vision for the future of the internet in “The Road Ahead”, Scoble and Israel dig even deeper to give us a glimpse of a future just as significant, if not more. A future beyond the connection. Even beyond context. As laid out in this book, a future of presence through immersive technologies of virtual reality, augmented reality and mixed reality. A future ripe with opportunities for both producers and consumers of immersive experiences along with the inherent challenges and concerns that lie ahead in this AI driven world we will all begin to live in.
What I loved most about the book is the deep dive into the talent driving the VR, AR and MR space, providing a glimpse behind the scenes of what is about to transpire across medical, educational, scientific, military, gaming and entertainment industries. But don’t be mislead, this book is not just full of facts and figures, it is a powerful narrative documenting the early days of a technology which will revolutionize the way, we as a species, communicate and observe the world around us. Which as the authors point out could be either a good thing or a bad thing (more than likely a mixture of both.)
A quote from Isaac Asimov opens Chapter 11 setting the tone to close the book. “The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.” The question artfully posed is will this Fourth Transformation finally bring us to a place where wisdom will begin to have a fighting chance? Where the potential of immersive technologies will inspire empathy from what will surround us regardless of our physical proximity. Where “in the moment” will become so much more than just a catchphrase.
The book ends with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty rarely found from the cheerleading section of the tech bench with the authors doing a service to the wild ride we're about to experience, eloquently exploring the seedier potential of the technology while remaining optimistic.
All in all, the Fourth Transformation is a wonderful read, adeptly exploring the transformation we are about to experience through immersive technologies and artificial intelligence. I for one believe the book will hold up well with the test of time to become a valuable resource for those looking to harness Immersive Technologies to engage in the marketplace of ideas and experiences.
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